CDEF Seminar Series No.6: Limits to Skill-based Countercyclical Adaptation in Business Cycles

Speaker: Sudong Hua (SIMIS)

Time: 2025-12-01 15:00-16:00
Location: 910, SIMIS
Zoom Meeting ID: 821 6164 3270 Passcode: SIMIS

摘要:

Households respond to recessions by reallocating time and money across market work, home production, and leisure. In a static framework, we show that countercyclical adaptations mitigate recessionary shocks: skilled households substitute non-market time for labor supply and contract expenditure, while unskilled households adjust oppositely. These responses are stronger across space than over time, and more pronounced for home production than leisure, resulting in concentrated consumption volatility in market work and greater smoothing in non-market activities. These patterns arise from the interplay between substitution versus income effects and the relationship between money and time in producing consumption. Two limitations further qualify these mechanisms. First, demographic heterogeneity explains why some groups exhibit procyclical adaptations that amplify shocks. Second, countercyclical adaptations take time to build, constrained by labor market rigidities, household coordination, and liquidity constraints.


About Speaker:

Sudong Hua is a postdoc at SIMIS. He had a PhD in Economics from Hong Kong Baptist University. His research interests are macroeconomics, finance, and Chinese economy.

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